Analysis of pulp and paper market
March 06, 2023
Market of imported wood pulp:
Futures market: In the aspect of coniferous pulp this week, the Finnish port strike ended, which had little impact on Finnish pulp shipments in the short term, while the international supply events continued to affect coniferous pulp, which had limited impact on the pulp market in the short term. In terms of Hardwood Pulp, the new capacity is put in a large amount, which has a strong impact on the overall supply of wood pulp market. If the delivery of foreign hardwood pulp starts to rise significantly after the second quarter, it may have a further impact on the market quotation. In terms of external market, Arauco, Chile, announced that in March, the price of silver star of coniferous pulp was 920 dollars/ton, which was the same as that of last month, the price of gold star of natural color pulp was 770 dollars/ton, and the net price of broadleaf pulp star was 730 dollars/ton. Most of them are expected to be short of the market atmosphere. The consumption of downstream raw materials is limited, the port inventory is high, and the supporting pulp price is limited. The domestic futures market has obviously declined, affecting the spot market price to adjust with the market. Spot market: spot market prices continue to decline this week; The traders determine the shipping price according to their own conditions, and the quotations are different from each other, and the shipping is negotiated with the actual order. The price of coniferous pulp, referring to the quotation of silver star 6750 yuan/ton, moon 6900 yuan/ton, Kalip 7150 yuan/ton, Alabama 6800 yuan/ton, and Pacific 6650 yuan/ton in Qingdao, has dropped by about 50-200 yuan compared with last week. The price of broadleaf pulp and broadleaf pulp has continued to decline, referring to the quotation of goldfish, parrot, star 5650 yuan/ton in Qingdao, and the price of second-class broadleaf pulp, such as unicorn, bird, Alpine, and Heping River, has dropped by about 100-150 yuan compared with last week. The natural color pulp is purchased by the market according to demand, with steady decline. The reference price is 6150 yuan/ton for Venus, 5400 yuan/ton for Dolphin, Tiangong and Coben. The offer for chemical-mechanical pulp market is less, and affected by the overall pulp price decline, the reference price is 5350 yuan/ton for Kunhe and 5250 yuan/ton for crystal. National waste market performance: This week, the price of yellow waste paper was stable and slightly changed. The price of most paper mills fell by 20-50 yuan/ton. The order of the downstream finished paper market was general, resulting in the weak demand for waste paper in the paper mills, and the price of waste paper continued to decline. The packaging plant is not optimistic about the late market, and the shipment speed and volume have increased. It is expected that the market price will still decline in the late period, and the price of white waste paper will follow the market. Under the impact of imported base paper, the downstream paper enterprises will sell finished paper in the off-season, and the overall market supply and demand will be weak. In order to control costs, the price of waste book paper will decline. The price of waste newspapers has fallen partially, the market supply is low, and the trading atmosphere is light. At present, the reference price of yellow waste paper is about 1650-1750, taking East China as an example. The price of white waste paper is relatively stable in recent years, and the reference price of white waste paper market is between 1800-2150. Packaging Paper market performance: This week, the price of white cardboard was temporarily stable; In the early stage, some paper mills were limited by the high cost of raw materials. The market price of wood pulp raw materials fluctuated slightly, and the price of wood pulp paper products rose with a tentative increase of 100 yuan/ton. The market reaction was poor, the acceptance of end users was general, and the actual market transactions were mostly negotiated. It is expected that most of the paper enterprises will be on the sidelines in the later stage of the market, and the market recovery will be less optimistic than in previous years. After the policy factors are digested, the domestic paper market will gradually return to fundamentals. Up to now, the market price of white paperboard is 5800-6400 yuan/ton, and the low-end reference price is 5400-6100 yuan/ton. This week, the price of whiteboard market fell, the market supply and demand were flat, and the trading volume was average. Recently, due to the decline of wood pulp raw materials and the weak demand in the end market, the price of white paperboard has declined. The rigid demand will increase after the festival, which is conducive to the improvement of the relationship between supply and demand. Since the current market supply and demand still has some pressure, we are cautious and optimistic about the market expectations for the next month. Affected by the decline in the price of wood pulp paper products in the market, the price of some white board paper will fall, with a drop of 100 yuan/ton. It is expected that the market will be cautious in the later period, and the market trend may change at a node, which does not rule out the possibility that the market will continue to decline. This week, the market of corrugated paper and corrugated board fell steadily, with the main stream paper mills falling by 50-100 yuan/ton. This week, the main stream paper mills' carton board and corrugated board fell slightly, and the surrounding small and medium-sized paper mills fell by about 50 yuan/ton. The demand of secondary factories still could not be matched. The purchase intention was flat, and the price of waste paper in the upstream market fell to about 1600-1700 yuan/ton. The prices of carton paper and corrugated were mainly subject to a small drop. The scale of paper mills has been reduced successively, and small and medium-sized paper enterprises in various regions have declined slightly. With the increase of inventory pressure of some paper enterprises, it is expected that the paper enterprises will shut down or increase next week, and the market still has the possibility of downward trend. Negative/positive factors in the market: downstream terminal demand weakened, and the ex-factory price fell slightly.
