The consumption of pulp and paper in Europe will be stable and the output of industrial paper will decline in 2022

February 22, 2023

In 2022, European paper consumption showed resilience, but due to external factors, the paper output decreased by 5.9% year-on-year.

According to the preliminary statistics, the output of paper and paperboard in the member countries of the European Paper Federation will decrease by 5.9% year-on-year in 2022. Compared with last year's data, it reflects the impact of high energy prices and sudden slowdown of European economy on the industry in the second half of last year.

In 2022, the total output of paper and paperboard in Europe will reach 848 million tons. Except for the grade of household paper and toilet paper, almost all the grades of paper and paperboard show a downward trend. At the same time, according to the latest estimates, despite the slowdown in the EU economy, consumption remained stable, with the GDP growth rate of 0.3% in the third quarter of 2022, while it stagnated in the fourth quarter.

The report also published the estimate of EU economic growth in the next two years, namely, the EU economic growth rate in 2023 and 2024 will be 0.8% and 1.6% respectively.

The decline in production and stable consumption have greatly broken the balance of paper trade. It is observed that the problem of output decline is universal among the major producers in the world. Paper production in Canada, Japan, the United States and South Korea decreased by 0.5% - 3.5%. The decline in European production is subject to a number of factors, the most important reason is the impact of energy costs. The high price directly caused many paper mills to temporarily close their paper machines.

In terms of the specific paper grade, the output of each paper type varies greatly, especially Cultural Paper, Packaging Paper, toilet paper and household paper.

The use of paper that can be used for later recovery by enterprises in CEPI member countries decreased by 6.4% year on year. Due to the sharp rise in the price of electricity and natural gas, it has a significant impact on recovery plants and non-integrated paper mills, especially in the second half of the year. In 2022, the recycling rate of recyclable paper in Europe exceeded that in previous years, reaching 96%. Exports fell by nearly 10%, partly due to the prolonged closure period in Asia.

Overall paper and paperboard consumption remained stable

According to the latest statistics, in 2022, the total consumption of paper and paperboard in CEPI member countries remained relatively stable year-on-year, mainly benefiting from the external environment conducive to development in the first half of the year. In the second half of the year, the economic growth slowed by half. In 2022, due to changes in consumption patterns, the demand for toilet paper and household paper increased by 3.6% year-on-year.

The demand for cultural paper in 2022 will be affected by the decline of printing and publishing demand, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.8%. Based on the data from the first nine months of last year, the demand for packaging paper and paperboard remained relatively stable, with a year-on-year increase of 0.5%.

Except toilet paper and household paper
The output of other paper and paperboard decreased

It is estimated that the output of packaging grade decreased by 4.6% year on year. Among the packaging grades, the output of outer packaging paperboard and corrugated paperboard mainly used for transportation decreased by 4.8% year-on-year. Carton paperboard and other packaging paperboard mainly used for retail packaging decreased by 4.1% year-on-year, and packaging paper mainly used for paper bag production decreased by 5.2% year-on-year.

In 2022, CEPI member countries' packaging grade production accounted for 59.8% of the overall paper and paperboard production (59.1% in 2021), and cultural paper grade accounted for 26.1% (27.7% in 2021). The output of other paper and paperboard grades mainly used for industrial and special purposes accounted for 4.8% of the total output of paper and paperboard, a year-on-year decrease of 6.1%.

The output of toilet paper and household paper increased by 2.2% year on year, accounting for 9.3% of the total paper and paperboard, basically reaching the level during the COVID-19 crisis in 2021.

The output of cultural paper grade decreased by 11.3% year on year. Cultural paper once rose in 2021 and then declined in 2022. Due to the closure and conversion of relevant paper mills, newsprint decreased by 9.9% year-on-year, and printing and writing paper decreased by 11.5% year-on-year.

Printing and writing paper are mainly used in the production of magazines, brochures, catalogues and direct mail products, with more specific grades and categories falling by different degrees. Coated mechanical pulp paper and uncoated mechanical pulp paper decreased by 19.5% and 13.2% respectively year on year. The output of uncoated chemical paper grade - carbon paper decreased by 5.8%, while the output of coated chemical paper increased by 12.0%.

In short, this means that the output of coated and uncoated cultural paper decreased by 15.8% and 8.5% respectively. The output of chemical pulp cultural paper decreased by 8.0%, while that of mechanical pulp cultural paper decreased by 16.3%.

In 2022, the volume of paper and paperboard shipments of CEPI member countries decreased by 3.3% year-on-year, including 13.3% decline in exports

According to the accumulated data in the first nine months of 2022, it is expected that the volume of paper and paperboard shipments of member countries will decline by 3.3% year-on-year, including 13.3% decline in exports. This reflects that the overall decline in paper production in Europe last year has a particularly significant impact on exports, which is also a sign of the slowdown in global economic growth. As of September 2022, the shipment volume of cultural paper grade decreased by 10.1% year on year, while the packaging grade increased slightly by 1% year on year.

By the end of September 2022, the export value of paper and paperboard of CEPI member countries had dropped 13.3% year on year. This is not an exception in the world. Europe's neighbors fell by 10.5%, North America by 2%, Latin America by 8.9%, Asia by 27%, and other countries by 9.7%. In terms of the market share of paper and paperboard exports of CEPI member countries, the share of exports to other European countries is large, accounting for 38.1% of the total export share of Europe, 20.3% of exports to Asian countries, and 15.0%, 9.8% and 16.8% of exports to North America, Latin America and other countries, respectively.

Preliminary statistics show that the import of paper and paperboard from CEPI member countries increased by about 6.8% year on year, and the import from European countries other than CEPI member countries increased by 21.8%. 47.4%, 23.6% in North America, 16.9% in Asia, 8.0% in Latin America and 4.1% in the rest of the world.

In 2022, EU trade with Russia was affected by EU sanctions: EU paper exports to Russia fell by 68%, and paper imports from Russia fell by 35%. In general, the trade volume of paper and paperboard decreased by 20% year on year, but still maintained a growth trend.

Total output of integrated self-use pulp and commercial pulp decreased by 3.7%

Affected by the temporary stoppage and strike at the beginning of 2022, the total output of pulp production (integrated self-use pulp and commercial pulp) was about 35.9 million tons, down 3.7% year on year.

The output of mechanical pulp decreased by 5.4%, while that of chemical pulp decreased by 3.3%. Chemical pulp accounts for 77% of the total pulp output. Commercial pulp decreased by 3.7%

Author:

Mr. Ma Yanfeng

E-mail:

sandy@zhongzhi.cn

Phone/WhatsApp:

8615200088110