Analysis of pulp market (3.6-3.10)
March 14, 2023
Market of imported wood pulp:
Futures market: this week, UPM Uruguay's 2.1 million tons of broadleaf pulp capacity will be put into operation at the end of March. In the third quarter, the 800000 tons of coniferous pulp capacity of Finlin Fenbao Kemi project will be put into operation, and the overseas supply side will gradually become loose. The international supply side has been repaired in succession, and the number of shipments from the mainstream international market to China has increased month-on-month, which is negative for the pulp market trend; The spot price of domestic imported wood pulp continued to weaken, and the social demand began to improve, but the economic growth slowed down, and the demand for pulp recovered slowly. Base paper manufacturers were generally short of the market, and the downstream purchasing willingness was not strong. The weak demand made the pulp price continue to bear pressure. Spot market: the spot market price continued to decline this week, and the port inventory was in a state of de-stocking compared with the previous period. The traders determine the shipping price according to their own conditions, and the prices quoted by each company are different, and the actual order is negotiated for shipment. For coniferous pulp, refer to the quotation of silver star 6600 yuan/ton, moon 6650 yuan/ton, Kalip 7050 yuan/ton, Alabama 6500 yuan/ton, down about 100-150 yuan from last week. The prices of broad-leaved pulp and broad-leaved pulp have been declining continuously. Refer to the quotation of goldfish, parrot, star 5550 yuan/ton in Qingdao, and 5450-5500 yuan/ton of second-class broad-leaved pulp, such as unicorn, bird, Alpine, Heping River, down about 100-150 yuan from last week. The natural color pulp is purchased by the market according to demand, with steady decline. The reference price is 6000-6050 yuan/ton for Venus, 5100-5150 yuan/ton for Dolphin, Tiangong and Coben. The offer for chemical-mechanical pulp market is relatively small. Affected by the overall pulp price decline, the reference price is 5300 yuan/ton for Kunhe and 5250 yuan/ton for crystal. National waste market performance: This week, the price of yellow waste paper continued to decline. The price of most paper mills fell by 20-50 yuan/ton at a time, and the cumulative decline this week was 60-110 yuan/ton. Affected by the shrinking demand of downstream finished paper market and the shutdown and price guarantee, the demand for waste paper in the paper mill is flat and the price of waste paper continues to decline. The packaging plant is not optimistic about the late market, and the shipment speed and volume have increased. It is expected that the market price will still decline in the late period, and the price of white waste paper will follow the market. Under the impact of imported base paper, the downstream paper enterprises will sell finished paper in the off-season, and the overall market supply and demand will be weak. In order to control costs, the price of waste book paper will decline. The price of waste newspapers has fallen partially, the market supply is low, and the trading atmosphere is light. At present, the reference price of yellow waste paper is about 1550-1650, taking East China as an example. The price of white waste paper is relatively stable in recent years, and the reference price of white waste paper market is between 1600 and 2000. Packaging Paper market performance: This week, the price of white cardboard fell again; The white card market has almost reached the lowest price in history, and the market price of wood pulp raw materials has continued to decline. Affected by this, the price of wood pulp paper products has entered the market and is still in the bottom stage of fierce competition. The market reaction is poor, the acceptance of end users is the same, and the actual market transactions are mostly based on negotiation. It is expected that most of the paper enterprises will be on the sidelines in the later stage of the market, and the market recovery will be less optimistic than in previous years. After the policy factors are digested, the domestic paper market will gradually return to fundamentals. Up to now, the market price of white paperboard is 5800-6400 yuan/ton, and the low-end reference price is 5400-6100 yuan/ton. This week, the situation of the whiteboard market has gradually declined, the delivery price of mainstream paper mills has declined by 50-100 yuan/ton, the demand of end users is light, and the market volume is average. Recently, due to the decline of wood pulp raw materials and the limited demand in the end market, white paperboard lacks support. Due to the weak price increase in the downstream base paper market, the industry considered the cost pressure to restrain the active pulp collection, and the price went down, and the cost fell, creating a negative impact on the paper price. Therefore, we are cautiously optimistic about market expectations. It is expected that the market will be cautious in the later period, and the market trend may change at a node, which does not rule out the possibility that the market will continue to decline. This week, the market of corrugated paper and carton board fell steadily, and the mainstream paper mills fell by 50-100 yuan/ton. The carton board corrugated market continued to be sluggish, and the price continued to decline in a weak way. On March 9, Jiulong announced again that the two paper machines in Quanzhou base would be shut down for maintenance, and it is expected to reduce the production of carton board corrugated by 15000 tons. Since the second half of last year, the repeated round stop maintenance of corrugated box board has become the industry norm. The scale of paper mills has been reduced one after another, and small and medium-sized paper enterprises around the country have followed the decline. With the increase in inventory pressure of some paper enterprises, it is expected that the paper enterprises will shut down or increase next week, and the market still has the possibility of downward trend. Market negative/positive factors: downstream terminal demand weakened, and factory prices continued to decline.
