Unfavorable start fluting and Kraft board still need to wait for the opportunity to rise

February 10, 2023

The market differentiation showed slight twists and turns. After the year, the Packaging Paper market went out of the "epidemic control" and did not usher in a hot market. Even though the paper companies have issued the price increase letter of whiteboard on the ninth day of the first month, and several whiteboard giants have announced a price increase of 100 yuan/ton in the middle of this month recently, the prices of corrugated paper and kraft cardboard have not been affected at all, and still maintain a steady downward trend.

According to insiders, on February 3, Shanying Paper Industry announced that, in order to give back to old users, from February 4, the price of T paper and tile paper for redwood produced in Zhejiang base, Anhui base and Central China base will be 50 yuan/ton and 50 to 80 yuan/ton respectively. This price adjustment notice from the leading paper enterprises has caused considerable discussion in the industry since its release.

After a few days, another price adjustment news in the packaging paper market again attracted the attention of the industry. On February 8, Jiulong Paper said that its production bases in Dongguan, Taicang, Tianjin, Quanzhou and other places lowered the price of corrugated paper and kraft linerboard by 50-100 yuan/ton. Take Dongguan Jiulong and Taicang Jiulong, the largest production bases of Jiulong Paper, as an example:

Dongguan Jiulong Paper Industry: from February 8, the price of Diniu will be reduced by 50 yuan/ton and that of 220g will be reduced by 100 yuan/ton; The price of 80g and 85g will be reduced by 100 yuan/ton, and 90-200g will be reduced by 50 yuan/ton; Jiangzai 70-85g will be reduced by 100 yuan/ton, and 90-200g will be reduced by 50 yuan/ton; The total weight of tile paper will be reduced by 50 yuan/ton.

Taicang Jiulong Paper Co., Ltd.: from February 8, the price of Dilong Niuka/Jianglong Niuka will be reduced by 100 yuan/ton, the price of recycled paper will be reduced by 50 yuan/ton, the price of Jiuwa and Haiwa will be reduced by 50 yuan/ton, and the price of Diwa and Jiangwa will be reduced by 80 yuan/ton.

It is not difficult to predict that under the leadership of the two giants, Shanying International and Jiulong Paper, other enterprises in the packaging paper industry will also make a corresponding reduction in the probability rate in order to maintain market competitiveness. So far, it can be basically determined that the packaging paper market will continue to maintain a stable and declining trend in a short time after, and the paper price will have to wait for another period of time to rise.

In my impression, the paper market after the Spring Festival will usually usher in a short wave of price rise. Whether it is corrugated paper, kraft cardboard, white cardboard or whiteboard, its price will rise to a certain extent. However, this year's market broke this practice. Obviously, the end consumer demand has not recovered significantly, and the packaging paper market without demand support is difficult to make a difference.

So, how long will this round of packaging paper price decline last? From another price adjustment notice of Jiulong Paper, we may see some clues.

On February 8, a price increase notice about Jiulong Paper came at the same time as the news of price reduction. The notice shows that from February 20, 2023, the price of gray board paper in Dongguan, Taicang, Tianjin and Chongqing bases will increase by 50 yuan/ton from the current level.

In addition, Jianhui Paper, a well-known whiteboard giant in Dongguan, also issued a price increase notice. From February 12, the sales price of the coated whiteboard of the paper enterprise has increased by 50 yuan/ton from the current level; From March 1, the sales price of its coated gray base white board increased by 50 yuan/ton from February 12.

In general, the current packaging paper market is divided, and the trend of various types of paper is different in the future. The price of white board paper is almost certain to gradually move up from the middle and late February; The price trend of corrugated paper and kraft linerboard is more complex, which may rise with the price of whiteboard, or continue to sink.

In short, the macro environment is unpredictable, and the price of packaging paper is still waiting for an opportunity to rise. There may be a price inflection point in early March.

Author:

Mr. Ma Yanfeng

E-mail:

sandy@zhongzhi.cn

Phone/WhatsApp:

8615200088110